However, not everyone believes the collapse of the ruthless Islamic government is imminent.
As the conflict, now more than two weeks old, continues to intensify, the government released a message it says is from the new supreme leader of the regime, Mojtaba Khamenei. The message declared that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, an obvious attempt to leverage global economic disruption and force the U.S. to end its military strikes.
Dr. Michael Rubin, of Middle East Forum, recently weighed in on Washington Watch on American Family Radio.
"The fact of the matter is there has been no sighting or photo or video of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, since his wife was killed and his father was killed in the initial February 28 bombing. There's a lot of belief out there among Iranians that he's either severely injured or that he may even be dead and that this is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (operating) behind the scenes, trying to pretend that everything is normal."
Rubin does not believe that the regime has staying power.
“One thing which happened which is extremely significant is that Israelis using drones, started taking out very precise paramilitary checkpoints in the streets of Tehran. The paramilitaries were doing this to create traffic, thinking this would immunize them. But in effect, the very people who were trying to repress the Iranian people are ending up dead, while the Iranian people are not. So, I would expect to see some sort of new protest movement by the time that you have the Persian New Year on March 21.”
Still, the regime remains confident, writes The Christian Science Monitor, with succession plans and internal political mechanisms in place to off-set threats to leadership.
The key for regime survival rests with organization, leadership and loyalty from the IRGC.
“In their heads, it’s an existential fight. The mindset is, we resist, or we get martyred while trying,” an Iran analyst with close access to policy circles in Iran, who asked not to be further identified, told The CSM.
“What we are seeing now is the playbook, developed if all-out war broke out … a very detailed contingency plan,” he says. “Keeping the military command operational was the key goal here. [In case] certain parts of this chain were disrupted – because of communications being cut, or undermined, or compromised – the different elements could work autonomously.”
Military loyalty remains the question.
There have been reports of “hundreds” of junior and mid-level officers who have defected, abandoned posts or disobeyed orders.
But there have been no confirmed reports of mass defections of senior IRGC commanders, no evidence that entire IRGC units have switched sides. IRGC leadership, according to recent U.S. intel reports, is still directing wartime operations and at no immediate risk of fracture or failure.
